You are a much bigger person than me. I’m not sure I could have held my tongue.

But you’ve seen this type of person before - the type who thinks that the .01% success rate of prayer is proof that their god exists - while ignoring the 99.99% failure rate (as their god’s “will").

Really, this is no different from a “psychic’s” success rate…

Heh, thought this might be relevant to the discussion.  Love that site. 
- Matt

I see ...

Snow in Canada…
Problems in the Middle East…
A new US president WITH IN THE YEAR
And hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico

Come to think of it, if I thought I could live with myself I’d be happy to take rubes like Liz for $700/hr. Maybe I could have a mid-life crisis, pretend to have thumped my head, and claim that in a past life I was Merlin and Harry Houdini? You think that would work?

“I predict I will become very rich, and white girls will go missing on television.”

GENIUS

To clarify- Year means 365 days from this point- my spirit Guide, One Man Bucket is not always clear on these matters.

I can’t see any cause for Liz to be like that to Les- uncalled for.

Liz read her tea leaves and could tell we’d be ridiculing her soon.

my spirit Guide, One Man Bucket is not always clear on these matters.

Does One Man Bucket have the Walrus’ bucket, or is it a different one?

Anyway, I predict:

1. It will be cold until Spring in the Northeastern US.  Much snow will fall.  This weather could extend as far west as the Pacific Northwest, and will probably also include most of Northern Europe and Asia.  The Southern Hemisphere should be nice and warm until about then.

2. The giant ball of nuclear fire that our planet sprints around once a year will once again put in an appearance at a designated time.  Local appearances will vary in time by approximately 1 hour for each separate time zone, starting in Greenwich England and gradually moving West.

3. The Democratic party will nominate a real live person to run in the presidential election this year.  The Republican party may elect a living person, but John McCain appears to be ahead at the time of this writing so the outcome of that is not as clear.

By the way, what about that case of ol’ Battleaxe Browne saying on live TV that some missing kid was just completely dead, but then they found the kid a few hours later all peachy keen OK?  That was some prediction!

Looks like Liz is the 0.01% that is stupid enough to believe.

“Mr. Atheist”

Maybe she reads Ray Comfort’s blog - he’s forever referring to some mythical straw atheist as “Mr. Atheist”.

I predict even more ridiculing of Liz! Behold!*

* Liz, if you and your friends would be so generous to send me my $700 I’d be really pleased. If you really want I can even speak in tongues a little for you, and pull out those Tarot cards I used to get laid by attractive, gullible ladies back in my early twenties.

and pull out those Tarot cards I used to get laid by attractive, gullible ladies back in my early twenties.

Does that really work!?! I’m not in my early twenties anymore (early thirties now), but I am single and I am looking to get laid by attractive ladies! You mean I could achieve my goal by doing Tarot readings!?!? Seriously!?! I might have to try it.

Does that really work!

It’s about strategy - like always confronting attractive single women you meet for your first impression in a way that pisses them off. They’re used to people being nice to them, so being a dick makes you stand out; and if you manage to turn out to be a nice guy later on somehow they assume that it’s because they’ve won you over with their personality and not cleavage.

People asking for Tarot readings are often people willing to open up a floodgate of personal worries and insecurities to some near stranger who happens to have bought some shitty cards. Once you’re in a position of listening to their problems and implicitly offering support you’ve already notched your trust-factor up. Plus, you’re in a place to explicitly sabotage their existing relationships and promote your own agenda simply by waving it off as a declaration of the inevitability of magical forces. Hell, I never tried it but I imagine it wouldn’t have been that difficult to sell the notion that everyone had to be naked “for the forces to flow properly without impediment” right from the get-go.

On the other hand, I think this just reinforces the sort of asshole I am in relationships and why dating mostly bores me.

Unfortunately Mook, women stops being attracted to the mildly amusing weird things when they get to their mid-twenties.

I really can’t tell if this message was meant to be serious, the sign off “BLESSED TO KNOW THE TRUTH” just sounds like something you end an overly sarcastic conversation about religion with.

Make enough predictions, especially if you base them on past evidence, and you’re sure to get some hits.  I made an accurate “prediction” that Guns ‘N Roses Chinese Democracy album would not come out last year, despite a supposed release date being issued.  Of course the fact that the album has had probably a dozen announced release dates by now made that an easy guess to make.  New Year’s prediction lists are always full of the obvious, such as that an old celebrity in poor health might die, or that a Hollywood couple might break up.

You know, as ignorant and abuse as she is, I have to admit a certain sympathy for Liz.  I have struggled with gullibility all my life.  Maintaining a skeptical outlook is a constant struggle for me, and I can understand how some people can’t manage it.  Although it does become much easier once you give up any belief in the supernatural.

One thing that’s clear, a lot of people have a weak sense of when they’re being lied to.

What makes this so difficult is the tendency we all have to lie to ourselves.  When you want to believe something…

One thing that’s clear, a lot of people have a weak sense of when they’re being lied to.

It is natural for people to believe what they are told- that after all is the point of language- communication.  If we were all naturally skeptical of everything then DoF would be would be sitting there saying “I want proof that round thing will make my life easier- and don’t get me started on fire”. 

We are born believers- look how easy it is to lie to children, who for survival reasons MUST believe what an adult tells them “Look out- you’re going to be eaten by a sabre tooth tiger” “Shan’t look, you liar”. What people crave is certanty.

It’s still perplexing that one could look at Sylvia’s predictions and think, “WOW a true genius!!” She has a horrible track record of being right. A simple Google search will tell you all you need to know. I guess the power to believe is too strong to change.

Forgot to add how stupid I feel after reading that Ray Comfort post DOF linked to. Holy shit I haven’t wanted to gouge my eyes out in a long time…

Listen, Sylvia is remarkable and her work as a psychic is unmatched by anyone else. How do you explain everything that she has accurately predicted? (I.E. The three major hurricanes that devistated the southeastern US? OR all of the families that she’s helped (missing children, cold case files, illness)?

What? Sylvia?  The hoopleheads sure keep getting hooplier, don’t they.

First off, she completely missed Hurricanes Ivan in 2004 and Katrina and Rita in 2005.  She also failed to predict every major event in 2006 and 2007, erroneously predicting instead that there would be a Tsunami in New York City and Floods in the South (which has been wracked by drought).  Then, of course, there are the famous events that she missed - on camera - like her disastrous Shawn Hornbeck prediction or the equally disastrous Sago mine fiasco, in which she contradicted herself on camera in order to keep up with the facts as they evolved.

FYI - I just finished my analysis of Sylvia Browne’s 2007 prediction accuracy, and she’s right where she was last year - 92% false alarms.  The most accurate thing anyone can say about Sylvia is that when she’s not wrong or totally loopy, at least she cries wolf consistently.

For those who are interested, my analysis of Sylvia Browne’s predictions is here.  Thanks, Webs.

often people just need something to believe in, gives them reason and a meaningful existence. Blind faith and like she said, ignorance is bliss, completely true and unfathomable in her case. lol she owned herself.

Research eh?

Anyone can write a book or article on the internet but it takes real integrity to get your sources and facts straight.  Refutations by non-skeptics always seem to fall in the category of either “you don’t see what we do and we pity your blindness” or “you are too thick to understand the concept”.  For once I would like to see a non-skeptic come forward with original material with strong sources backing them up (I might not like said sources but oh well, they don’t like mine either).  I challenge any non-skeptic to actually try crafting their arguments rather than throwing E-mails like internet monkeys.  If you want research, I’ll give ya a taste.

The Skeptical Inquirer for January/February 2008 (Volume 32, No. 1.) ran an article investigating the show Haunting Evidence.  This show is about psychic investigators who, using their unique gifts, solve cases that the authorities can’t handle.  Those psychics in question are Carla Baron, John J. Oliver and Patrick Burns.  None of the cases the show has profiled and reportedly solved has been solved by any information that the psychics provided.  Of the only case that has been solved to date, it was DNA evidence and a confession that brought justice, not the predictions of Mr. Oliver.  Still, the show qualifies it as one of their greatest successes.  Of particular interest was when the show investigated the 2001 murder of Tara Baker and had to edit out the families reaction to their findings.  I quote “Psychic investigators and the producers of such programs feed on the emotions of people in real tragedies...The only reason we agreed to do the show was because the case is completely stalled and the initial investigations [were] so severely botched...the worst thing about this experience is when people come up to me and commend my family for doing the show, telling me what a brilliant psychic Carla Baron is.... That woman was a real fruit loop.” In short they are completely ineffective and only serve to heighten family members grief.  Ironically the public viewership has a different opinion.  62 percent of its polled viewers believe that the psychics contributed much new information about the case.  They have failed to check their sources and instead believe with the show, at risk of damaging the justice process.  In my mind, psychics are doing more harm than good and people are happy to sit on the side lines and sugarcoat the truth.

There is a sample of the research you so crave Mrs. Kirkland.  There is plenty more available if you so request it.  Now it is your turn to make good on your promise of a researched reply.  I look forward to it with keen interest.

To everyone else, I sincerely recommend the Skeptical Inquirer.