I hate to go all off-topic more or less. I’m a major oil news junky though and thought I would share a bit of an article by Jan Lundberg with you all. If he and many other anylists and geologists are correct...well, we just don’t have to worry about nukes much.
Jan Lundberg, by the way, was for 16 years the publisher of the Lundberg Letter. The “bible of the oil industry”.

“There is no Plan B for coping with a terminal oil shock to the economy. Therefore, a breakdown of society must ensue, starting with “the trucks will not be pulling into Wal-Mart or Safeway,” as I was quoted in Congress on May 12, 2005. When people cannot get transportation to their jobs, business stops. People will be panicking first about gasoline, and then about how much food and water they have—tragically trying to protect those meager supplies in an unforgiving urban environment. Nature has been made to stop offering up the simple essentials of life, when the privatized fortress and paved-over toxic cities rely on money and cheap energy to move everything around the world. The world as we “know” it will end but we’ll get to know the world as it really is a lot better.

Die off will kick in first in terms of riots and killings by armed marauders, and “the police and military will not be able to keep order more than a few days, if at all” [my statement in Congress]. Next will come starvation, and cannibalism can only get people so far—especially with rampant disease and lack of clean water to drink. Starvation will take care of perhaps 95% (ninety-five per cent) of the petroleum-dependent populations in the U.S. and perhaps elsewhere in modern industrialized countries. Did I mention overpopulation? The simple fact is that population has far overshot the ecological carrying capacity of the whole planet, especially in the fossil fuelish/foolish U.S.A. And petroleum is how food is grown, distributed, packaged and prepared.

After two months, most of the starvation will have had its effect because only the largest and strongest men can fast 50 days perhaps (with good water supply). Malnutrition and poor water quality will take out millions of people afterwards, as was seen in Iraq after the Gulf War during U.S.-imposed U.N. sanctions.”

Frightening.. truly horrifying Mayo… as is North Korea.

So it looks like North Korea may have the bomb after all. Meanwhile our troops are still tied up with the arduous task of dieing in ever increasing record numbers in Iraq—a country that posed no threat at all to anyone outside of its own borders.

Of course we’ve already fought the Korean war once before and it didn’t go as well as we’d expected it to, but you could’ve still made a stronger argument for invading that country three years ago than you could about Iraq.

The US actually has a sizeable force in S. Korea—but even if every tank and soldier in Iraq were in Korea, we probably wouldn’t have moved on the North, for a couple of very good reasons:

1.  The South wouldn’t have allowed it.  They don’t want all of the North’s conventional weapons raining down on Seoul, even assuming the North didn’t already have nukes.

2.  The Chinese wouldn’t have allowed it.  Even though they are (and have been) royally pissed at the North.

Iraq was doable because there was no major opposition to it in the area (and because Saddam Hussein did everything but pull down his pants and moon the camera to say, “I dare you!").  We can argue over what level of threat Iraq posed (or would have posed today), and we can certainly agree that Bush hasn’t done much to deal with North Korea (though few of his predecessors have had much luck there, either).  But a conventional campaign against the North, unless it actually invaded south, was never in the cards.

Eye off the ball, as usual.  This is just the latest example.  Why, oh, why aren’t the Dems chanting, “Dude, where’s Osama?” That it takes a sex scandal to start Joe America thinking seriously at chucking this Adminstration’s Congressional toadies out is bad enough.  Knowing that the same toadies will still be set with cushy lobbying/consulting/executive-type jobs for the rest of their freaking lives as a reward for @#$&*ing over America’s long-term interests is see-red infuriating.

Good points, Dave.  But you’re forgetting that North Korea’s government is terminally paranoid, which is has its good points in a negotiating situation.  And, most importantly, it’s a hell of a lot easier to “negotiate” when you have a hundred thousand or so extra pairs of boots that could be stomping on Korean soil.  And the fact is that North Korea was also mooning us, too.  But the Administration somehow managed not to be shocked--shocked, I tell you!--that a rogue state run by ruthless dictators was developing weapons of mass destruction.  The hypocrisy of the double-standard is just staggering.  I wonder how Bush/Cheney/Rove/Rumsfeld shave every morning.  They can’t possibly see a reflection in the mirror anymore…

One should also note that the Norks have been preparing for war with the US ever since the active shooting stopped.  Their population is trained in guerrilla warfare which unfortunately works really, really well in mountainous terrain like NK.  They may not have the most modern equipment but as the old saying goes “quantity has a quality all its own”.

The US could have attacked NK.  It would have been opposed by the South Koreans and the Chinese, both of whom the US would really rather not upset (as to whether the current administration cares about not upsetting them I cannot say).  Still, the US could have mounted a semi-effective air campaign using carriers, for instance.  It would have caused a much larger war as the Norks headed south, assuming they were incapable of sinking the carriers (a qualified assumption - aircraft carrier battle groups haven’t faced a serious test since WW2 and may be as vulnerable as their critics suggest).  Either that or the Norks would lean on the South to stop the war or face getting Seoul wiped off the map with conventional artillery.  Whether the North could or could not do that is open to debate, but you wouldn’t catch me in downtown Seoul if fighting did break out.

The big difference between pre-invasion Iraq and NK?  The Norks would require a lot more blood and pain up front as opposed to the run down armed forces Iraq had.

This is pretty disturbing: we could potentially have a very grave situation on our hands here. At the same time, it’s important to keep in mind that nuclear tests were conducted all the time during the Cold War. That’s not to say that the actions of Kim Jong II are in any sense trivial, however.

That’s why it’s important to get closer to (Red) China, diplomatically.
But when I see the childish attitude the USA still holds towards a small and hardly significant Cuba after 47 years, I hold little hope.
Kim Jong-il (not Kim Jong mentally ill ) is just flexing his muscles - he’s not gonna declare war on anyone - he’s just singing What about Me.
I think Kim is a baby rattling the sides of a cot from December 2002, still rings true.
Nuclear-wise I’m still much more fearful of Pakistan because they have Allah on their side.

Kim Jong IL is one of the greatest leaders in the world. Who else could make a communist dictatorship work in today’s world.

Kim comes in a close 2nd on my favorite persons list. After Hitler, of course. 

US nuclear tests are hardly comparable to NorK tests.  At the time, the US was led by somebody sane and competent.

Who else could make a communist dictatorship work in today’s world.

Castro comes to mind with half the population of about 11 million and a similar GDP.
Fidel seems much more benevolent than Kim.

DoF: At the time, the US was led by somebody sane and competent.

But now? 

Yeah, an ignore button would be really nice.....

Castro comes to mind with half the population of about 11 million and a similar GDP.

Humm… A nut with a nuke, or a nut with cigars?

But now?

What?  I didn’ say nuthin!  Jus’ talkin’ about history…

an ignore button would be really nice…

We don’t need a button to ignore someone, KPG.  For instance, some hypothetical person could keep posting trying to get a reaction, and we could just not respond to ‘em.  Nothing to it.

We don’t need a button to ignore someone, KPG.  For instance, some hypothetical person could keep posting trying to get a reaction, and we could just not respond to ‘em.  Nothing to it.

With most trolls, that’s pretty simple DOF. But the shit the spews from this guys mouth makes my blood pressure rise everytime I see it.

But the shit the spews from this guys mouth makes my blood pressure rise every time I see it.

Oh, come on. There has to be SOMEONE here that agrees with at least some of what I post.

Admit it, Hitler did some things right. The autobahn, Volkswagen, eugenics, attempted world domination....

With most trolls, that’s pretty simple DOF. But the shit the spews from this guys mouth makes my blood pressure rise everytime I see it.

Perhaps a lesson from the gospel of Homer Simpson will help.  Remember the Halloween episode when all the giant advertising icons came to life and raged all over Springfield, leaving a wake of destruction behind them?  Marge realized that they got their power from the attention everyone paid them.  So everyone turned their backs, and the town was saved.

No relation to any hypothetical trolls, but it’s a nice story anyway.

Moloch: Oh, come on. There has to be SOMEONE here that agrees with at least some of what I post.

In the immortal words of Steven Tyler, dream on.

I am a fan of Volkswagen vehicles (particularly the vans), but it has nothing to do with the evil, artistically-impaired meglomaniac that you claim to hero-worship.

Double-dipping: DOF and KPG are absolutely right. Moloch is a desperate attention-seeking troll, and I will no longer waste any more of my brain cells or life engaging the idiot. Goodbye, Moloch. Here’s hoping the door hits your ass on the way out.

Goodbye, Moloch. Here’s hoping the door hits your ass on the way out.

Good luck. You can’t just wiggle your nose and make me disappear.

Seemed like a good time to share a happy song about nuclear proliferation, from mathematician, musician, and comedian Tom Lehrer

One of the big news items of the past year concerned the fact that China, which we called “Red China,” exploded a nuclear bomb, which we called a device. Then Indonesia announced that it was going to have one soon, and proliferation became the word of the day. Here’s a song about that:

WHO’S NEXT

First we got the bomb, and that was good,
‘Cause we love peace and motherhood.
Then Russia got the bomb, but that’s okay,
‘Cause the balance of power’s maintained that way.
Who’s next?

France got the bomb, but don’t you grieve,
‘Cause they’re on our side (I believe).
China got the bomb, but have no fears,
They can’t wipe us out for at least five years.
Who’s next?

Then Indonesia claimed that they
Were gonna get one any day.
South Africa wants two, that’s right:
One for the black and one for the white.
Who’s next?

Egypt’s gonna get one too,
Just to use on you know who.
So Israel’s getting tense.
Wants one in self defense.
“The Lord’s our shepherd,” says the psalm,
But just in case, we better get a bomb.
Who’s next?

Luxembourg is next to go,
And (who knows?) maybe Monaco.
We’ll try to stay serene and calm
When Alabama gets the bomb.
Who’s next?
Who’s next?
Who’s next?

I don’t know about that last one - if Alabama gets the bomb it might be time to panic

Thanks, DOF. I’m always up for some Tom Lehrer.

Actually I’m not particularly worried about North Korea having The Bomb. The more aggravating they get the more they piss of the Chinese. The Chinese, meanwhile have likely been wetting themselves over the prospect of actually flexing the Chinese military muscle a bit in a way that didn’t draw the US Navy to the coast of Taiwan like flies.

Pissing off the United States as N Korea is all talk - it’s a delicate political situation far away while we occupy Iraq and Afghanistan and we’re unlikely to do much more than make them more desparate and poor with our economic voodoo on them. China on the other hand, has just had talks with Japan about N Korea and no doubt posed the question: “If China decided to do something about N Korea, would Japan support us?”

That’s probably a massive summary and radical turn of the discussion, but I think from all the white as rice smiles all around, everyone in Asia must have come to the conclusion that Kim Jong Il as a nuclear neighbor within spitting distance is a bit more pressing than Californians quivering in fear from across the Pacific. Pushing China, therefore, would well and truly suck for N Korea. If I were S Korea, in fact, I’d be stepping out and impressing on everyone how much S Korea really respects China, just to increase the smell of urine in Kim’s chair.

In fact, it seems to me that the tiny might-be-nuclear test that N Korea staged was a response to these meetings. “Back off, we can kill Chinese!” more than “Death to the Americans!”, despite any language to the contrary. Except that of all nations with the exception of India, China is the best prepared to absorb a short-lived small-scale nuclear exchange by sheer weight of numbers and the assured victory of massive attrition. Then there is the political message to S Korea, which is probably more dangerous considering that the damage to S Korea in any conflict with any players would be the long term stickler for the wider world.

What would be the best possible hope for N Korea during any escalation? Well, N Korea can hardly hope to win S Korea with nuclear force or even threat of nuclear force - for long term sustainability of an occupation N Korea would have to curb the use of nukes in the first place, or else blow away most of the benefit of taking S Korea. China? Be real. Japan? Escalation threats in Japan should disturb anyone, because each one underscores another reason Japan should divert itself back toward a more proactive military. If that doesn’t seem worrisome as a Westerner, think about how it would seem to China to suddenly have a new aggressive and militarized Japan again off its eastern borders? But, much to N Korea’s dismay apparently, Japan and China apparently are aggreement about something over there, and if it’s a committment to letting China “take care of things?”

The only other possible ploy, as it seems to me, is to play on the American mindset and try to draw the USA into the discussion. The USA isn’t going to gain anything by letting China knock some heads in Pyongyang, and if N Korea were extremely lucky and the US were extremely stupid then we could let the whole thing be recast as a conflict between China and the US - with poor N Korea only providing an impromptu field of discussion for differences in cultural and political mindsets.

Personally I think the whole Castro thing is apt. Let the little fucker mouth off all he wants to. Let him have his nuclear toys and his shattered economy and his famines. Wait for him to die, for the military to decide that the best thing for N Korea would be to chop off his head and beg for a re-realized whole Korea, and basically just ignore him unless we find out that he’s stepped outside the short leash we’ve allowed him. And talk to the Chinese, discuss what you’ll allow and won’t allow, what would be an unforgivable closeness to S Korea, etc. The Chinese don’t want to fight the US right now anymore than we want to fight China, and they’re really the boots in the field best set to deal with Kim Jong Il backed into a corner anyways.

Meh. I talk too much.

Mr. Mook: “If I were S Korea, in fact, I’d be stepping out and impressing on everyone how much S Korea really respects China, just to increase
the smell of urine in Kim’s chair.

You could be right - it occurred to me that if China wants to become a respected superpower overnight (the US of the 21st century) they could march in and take North Korea and hand it over to South Korea and then leave.  Voila!  Instant credibility, world beats a path to their door, etc.

Understandably S. Korea is a bit nervous right now.  Il’s way of making friends and influencing people is to aim a lot of pointy-bangy things at Seoul. 

Only problem with letting Il have nukes is; might he give one to terrorists?  Anyone have thoughts on if that can be prevented?

If I were China, I’d nuke out Pyongyang, merge the country into one Korea and sell all my fake Nike’s there.

That’s instant credibility to the world- and a new market segment.