Got five minutes left to come up with an entry. Browsing hurriedly through some of my favorite sites. Oh look, this is rare event. James Randi is probably the man most directly responsible for me taking an interest in developing my critical thinking skills and a healthy sense of skepticism. He normally doesn’t get into the issue of religion as he’s already pretty busy debunking psychics, ghost stories, astrologers, homeopathy and other forms of pseudo-science and nonsense. This week’s commentary from him, however, is all about his views on religion.
This week’s page will be devoted entirely to religion. I’ve reached the point where I just have to unload on this subject that until now I’ve felt was just outside of the matters that the JREF handles. Since religion shows up as a part of so many arguments in support of other fantastic claims, I want to show you that its embrace is of the same nature as acceptance of astrology, ESP, prophecy, dowsing, and the other myriad of strange beliefs we handle here every day. Previously, I’ve excused myself from involved discussions of this pervasive notion, on grounds that it offers no examinable evidence, as the other supernatural beliefs actually do though those examinations have always shown negative results. Religious people can’t be argued with logically, because they claim that their beliefs are of such a nature that they cannot be examined, but just “are.”
Rather than argue or try to reason by their standards, I’ll settle for pointing out, briefly, how unlikely, unreasonable, bizarre, and fantastic their basic claims are, dealing for the most part with those I’m more familiar with, from personal experience.
Randi is always a good read and this time is no exception. Check it out.


I’m a little late to the conversation, as per usual, so let’s catch up a bit. Fair warning, this will be lengthy.
Not sure what your point is with the first sentence, unless you don’t understand the definition of “supernatural.” ESP is considered “supernatural” simply because it appears to violate the natural laws that dictate how reality works. If it can be proven to be a real phenomena and if the process of how it does what it does can be explained then it would no longer be considered supernatural. As it currently stands, however, it’s neither been proven to be real nor have any reasonable theories been proposed on how it does what it does, thus it’s designation as supernatural.
Now that we’ve gotten the semantics lesson out of the way, I have a couple of questions on the rest of your paragraph:
Indeed, but it definitely gives good reason to doubt. It’s entirely possible that every single person who has genuine ESP is too altruistic to prove their ability for mere money alone, but knowing human nature the way that I do I find this possibility to be very unlikely.
In the absence of proof you’re free to believe anything you want, but the absence of proof isn’t a good reason to believe nor is it much of a repudiation of those who disbelieve.
GeekMom has already addressed this fairly well so I won’t rehash what she’s said.
These days, as much as it pains me to say it, you can’t trust everything you see on The Discovery Channel or The Learning Channel. They’ve given in to the draw of ratings and are just as willing to air shows that are scientifically dubious at best and pure hype at worst as they are anything that represents a serious look at the topics covered. Quite often it seems the shows are little more than one or more lowest-common-denominator FOX specials re-packaged with new title graphics and less sensationalistic voice overs. Checking the end credits commonly shows the same company behind the productions.
I also looked at the link you provided, but I don’t see anything about medicine men being credit with discovery of the hantavirus in mice plaguing the Navahos.
It’s also possible the Navaho medicine men were just smart enough to notice that the presence of these mice coincided with the presence of the disease. Nothing particularly mystical about that.
Again, my experience with human nature would suggest otherwise and Randi certainly isn’t wanting for applicants. Many of whom claim not only to have a genuine ability, but seem to feel it’s a sacred gift from god. Their reasons for applying often have little to do with the money and more to do with establishing not only their ability as legitimate, but also as support for the existence of a god or gods. There are plenty of charlatans out there, however, who find hiding behind the “I won’t engage in tests to prove it because it’s sacred” argument to be a very effective means of deflecting criticism.
As I’ve said before: You can make any claim you want, but unless you’re willing to back it up with some solid proof (read: non-anecdotal which seems to be most of what is offered as proof) then there’s little reason to buy into those claims. Allow me to provide an example…
If I told you I had a small blue fairy in my pocket who gives me advice on the stock market and had a burgeoning portfolio of high-earning stocks as proof of this truth, would you accept my claim based on that evidence? How about if I refused to let you see or even hear my small blue fairy as she gives me stock tips? What if I had others who are willing to back up my claims because I relayed tips from my small blue fairy to them and their stocks increased in value as a result? My small blue fairy is a sacred gift and it would be sacrilegious to put her to any kind of a test so you’ll just have to accept me and my supporters at their word. I mean, why would we lie about it?
Based on the logic you’ve put forth so far you have no good reason to think my claims are bullshit and, based on your responses so far, quite probably would be inclined to defend my claims to others.
Again it’s not proof that some people don’t have said experiences, but considering one of the defenses often put forth is the detail of the information psychics supposedly come up with it does leave one wondering why this detailed information is never about anything important. Why do the dead people have no problems predicting new rugs in someone’s future, but they never tell anyone where the missing Last Will is hidden? Why can’t psychics tell us who the murderer was? Or that some relative is going to be hit by a car tomorrow? Who gives a flying fuck about new rugs?
There is a big difference between falling over the edge and being thrown from the bed of the truck. How many times have you had a feeling you couldn’t shake that something was going to happen, but nothing ever did? Why didn’t you sense that you would be thrown from the truck instead of merely falling out? For that matter, why didn’t you sense that it was going to be an accident rather than just you falling out as it traveled along? How many car accidents have you been in where you had no premonition at all?
There is something to be said for intuition as well. I’ve had plenty of times when I suspected something was about to happen and—lo and behold—it did, but there was nothing paranormal about it. Often times I can even tell you why I had my suspicions, but not always. Does the fact that I can’t always explain why I have these insights prove that I have some latent psychic power I’m not aware of? Only if you’re easily convinced.
You’re not telling us anything we don’t already know by suggesting that we can find people around us who have experienced this sort of thing. Some people think they have premonitions and psychic experiences and are quite sincere about it. Then again, some people think they’ve been abducted by aliens and had probes shoved up their asses. Some other people think they’ve seen Big Foot or the Loch Ness Monster or ghosts or any of a host of other ghoulies. Even more people think Elvis is still alive and living in Kalamazoo, Michigan and many of them claim to not only have seen him, but talked to him. All manner of people from all walks of life who are completely sincere make claims like any and all of these all the time. Are they all lying? I don’t think so, but that doesn’t mean they’ve actually experienced what they think. Any time spent with a children’s book of optical illusions will easily demonstrate how your eyes can’t be trusted to always present you the truth. If you’ve ever watched a movie in surround sound then you should realize your ears are easily fooled as well. Ever eaten anything that tasted familiar only to realize it uses artificial flavors? Not one of the five senses is immune to being fooled, but then it’s not the sense itself that’s being fooled, it’s the brain’s interpretation of the sense.
Again, it’s true that psychics not hitting the lottery doesn’t mean there aren’t any psychics, but it is good reason to doubt those who would claim to know the future. The point remains that few psychics who claim to know the future ever provide anything significant in the way of predictions that would indicate there’s more than mere coincidence at work for the few occasions they happen to be right. For example, why wasn’t there a single prediction about the 9/11 Terrorists attacks prior to the event?
Perhaps that’s because the mathematicians who have probability down to a science know something that you apparently do not: That the probability of the mathematician to correctly predict the winning jackpot numbers in, say, the Powerball Lottery is around 0.000000012 or, in other words, they are most likely to be wrong on any given prediction. When you factor in the total number of potential ways to win (the jackpot isn’t the only prize) and the number of people holding tickets during any particular drawing, which tends to increase as the jackpot grows, you’ll find that the probability of predicting the winning numbers gets very complex. If you really want to know, however, you can read a very detailed examination of probability with regards to the Powerball Lottery in this PDF file.
You haven’t studied probability theory yourself, I assume, or you’d have already realized the fallacy of your argument. Why would you assume that someone who has probability down to a science would be able to use that knowledge to accurately predict the outcome of a random event? Simply knowing that the probability of any particular coin toss coming up heads is 0.5 (50-50) doesn’t make you any more likely to predict accurately what the next flip will produce. It just means you’ve got a good chance of being right on average.
Correction, it’s anecdotal evidence. And yes, science discounts anecdotal evidence in favor of empirical evidence. I’m not sure why you seem to think this is a bad thing. No one is denying that you are sincere about what you felt at the time, it’s the conclusion you are drawing from that feeling that we are questioning. You say that you had a sensation of “being pulled out” which you interpreted to mean you were going to “fall out” of the truck. You acted on that feeling by moving to the center of the truck and at some indeterminate time after that there was an accident that “threw” you out of the truck bed. The conclusion you are drawing from these experiences is that it must have been some sort of premonition and that is certainly one explanation, but not necessarily the only one nor necessarily the correct one. You’ve accepted that explanation as being true, but that doesn’t make it true.
It’s entirely possible that the sensation of being pulled out could have been centrifugal forces from either an increase or decrease in the speed of the truck or a change in inclination of the truck due to a hill. If the change is gradual enough the sensation can be very subtle and startling. I’ve ridden in enough truck beds to have experienced the same sensation, though none of the trucks I experienced it in were in accidents. The fact that the truck was in an accident shortly after your sensation is likely just a coincidence that is facilitating your conclusion, but that’s not the only explanation. It’s possible the truck could have been accelerating in order to pass another vehicle (causing your sensation) and in the process of doing so causing the accident to take place. Or it may have been braking slightly (causing your sensation) due to a potentially dangerous traffic development which the driver under-estimated the severity of resulting in the accident. Or any of a number of other possible explanations all of which are more probable than you having a psychic experience. Again, without knowledge of the specifics all I can do is speculate. At the age of 10 your cognitive thinking ability wasn’t anywhere near what it would be as an adult and that also probably plays a role in this story.
All that proves is that there are people out there who believe they have gifts science can’t explain who are content in those beliefs or unwilling to risk the possibility of being wrong about those beliefs. In my youth I had a girlfriend whom I managed to convince that I had the ability to teleport myself from spot to spot. Every time she’d turn around I’d be standing right behind her. She never heard me coming up and even if she was trying to watch for me I’d still manage to end up behind her where I’d lean over and whisper “boo” in her ear. Now, which do you think is the more probable explanation:
I’ll give you two chances to pick the right answer. This girl wasn’t stupid and she could admit that, logically, she knew it was impossible for me to literally be teleporting. That didn’t stop her from believing the possibility of it though. She probably dumped me because I creaped her out too much with that little trick.
They’d make a lot of money. At least they would if people like John Edward, Sylvia Browne, James Van Praaugh and the rest of the so-called psychics are any indication. You’re right, though, who the hell would want to subject themselves to being filthy rich and sought after by millions? I’d hate to have people hanging off my every word as being some revelation from on-high and asking for personal consultations at a billing rate of $300 an hour (Edward). I’d hate having all those people come to my sold-out shows at $75 a ticket on the off-chance that I might tell them about some rugs they’d get in the near future.
Sorry, the if-they-revealed-themselves-the-scary-government-people-would-lock-them-up-and-poke-the-with-needles-endlessly argument doesn’t really wash.
Again, that’s certainly all possible, but that’s no reason to accept the possibility as being the truth. There’s a big difference between what is possible and what is probable. Simply because something is possible doesn’t give us any reason to believe that possibility is true. It’s possible aliens with a serious ass-fetish keep showing up and molesting various citizens of Earth. It’s possible the homeless guy I know is being followed around by invisible blue beings from the planet Zippo that are making him teach them all about mankind so they can determine whether or not to blow up the planet (he seems quite sincere in that belief). It’s also entirely possible that all of you are mere figments of my fevered imagination as I lay in a coma in some hospital after a horrible Cheez-Whiz(tm) accident.
All of those things are possibilities, but until you can provide something more than anecdotal evidence for any of them I intend to assume they’re all bullshit for now.
Again, without more specifics we can only speculate. I’ve heard a lot of claims like this, after the fact. It is anecdotal evidence, though. For whatever that’s worth.
Why should it? You haven’t even offered an explanation of how these phenomena would conceivably work, how can you begin to speculate on what might fuck up their functioning?
Well, that’s one explanation. I have problems with it though. What kind of prejudice and fear do you think scientists have towards the paranormal? Why should they have those fears? What other taboos does admitting the existence of the “sixth sense” open up? What the hell do you mean by “science resists knew ideas, and there is hard evidence of that in its history?” Are you sure you’re not confusing science with religion? What “mountain of evidence” are you talking about? All the anecdotal stories people have shared? If there’s mountains of evidence you should be able to point to it easily enough.
Again I think you’re confusing science with religion. Science, done properly, embraces change. No theory is sacrosanct. Nothing is beyond being revised in the face of new data. You want to accept all the excuses the psychics have to offer, but then take science to task for not buying into outrageous claims that, in many cases, violate some of the basic laws of realities that have stood up to rigorous experiments for decades because science is unwilling to draw conclusions on anecdotal evidence alone.
Not to be mean, but it sounds you’re suffering from a bad case of wishful thinking.
I’m willing to be convinced, but it’s going to take more than stories about your experiences to convince me what you say is true. I’ve found that applying Occam’s Razor is invaluable in evaluating claims such as the ones you’re making above. I accept that you believe your conclusions on the events in question are true, but there are other possible explanations that are more probable as well and in the absence of any additional evidence other than your anecdotal stories I’m inclined to believe you misconstrued what actually happened.
Again, that is a possibility and there are scientists out there looking for it. Until someone is able to repeatedly demonstrate some ability in a controlled environment, however, there’s no good reason to assume this possibility is even remotely probable.
The one thing you’ve said so far that I agree with wholeheartedly. Shame it doesn’t really support your argument, though.